TSMC’s revenue both fell in November, and short-term recovery of the global chip market may be difficult

On December 8, TSMC announced its monthly revenue for November, with sales of NT$206.0026 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.3%. Industry analysis shows that with the blessing of Apple's new mobile phone iPhone15, revenue in October increased, but revenue fell by 15.3% month-on-month in November, indicating that the recovery of the global chip market may not be that fast.

TSMC predicted at its October presentation that sales in the fourth quarter would be US$18.8 billion to US$19.6 billion, an increase of about 9% to 13% compared with the third quarter. Based on the currently announced revenue figures for October and November, TSMC's revenue in December reached NT$152.4 billion, which can achieve its financial forecast target. Judging from the fact that revenue in October and November both exceeded NT$200 billion. Look, it's not hard to achieve the predicted growth.

According to a report from market research and survey agency TrendForce, TSMC benefited from the support of PC, smartphone components, and 5G/4G mid-to-low-end mobile phone inventory replenishment urgent orders, coupled with the revenue contribution from the high-priced 3nm process, which offset the third The decline in quarterly wafer shipments was a negative factor, and third-quarter revenue increased by 10.2% to $17.25 billion. 3nm's revenue contribution in the third quarter has reached 6%, and TSMC's overall advanced process (below 7nm) revenue has accounted for nearly 60%.

During a third-quarter earnings call, TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia said the company expected the chip market to bottom out "soon" but stopped short of predicting a strong rebound.

 Electronics makers and chip suppliers have been struggling to absorb large amounts of unsold inventory. But now, executives at chip companies including TSMC and Samsung Electronics say the industry has largely exhausted its excess supply.

 Demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips is boosting performance at companies such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and filling orders for TSMC's most advanced production nodes. AMD on Wednesday expected the market for artificial intelligence chips to climb to more than $400 billion over the next four years, more than double AMD's forecast in August. TSMC also produces AMD's chips, including the latest artificial intelligence chip MI300.

TSMC stated that despite being in a short-term inventory cycle, it still reiterates its commitment to supporting customer growth. Rigorous capital expenditure and production capacity planning are still based on long-term structural market demand. It will continue to work closely with customers to plan long-term production capacity and invest in advanced process technology and special process technology. To support customer growth while delivering profitable growth to shareholders.